Research Portfolio

Evidence in Motion

Explore our latest published documents, reports, and client case studies designed to drive impact.

Labor Economics•

Analysis of Human Potential Resources Quality in High Growth Industrial Sectors in Indonesia

This study examines the alignment between sectoral growth and human capital quality in Indonesia, and its impact on wage outcomes. Using longitudinal Sakernas data (2012–2022) at the district–sector level with province fixed effects, the study finds that only 12.73% of regions simultaneously experienced high sectoral growth and rising tertiary-educated labor, yet these regions recorded approximately 74% higher wage levels. Education and training individually contribute modest wage gains (4–8% and 5–7% respectively), but their impact is maximized when aligned with high-growth sectors. The study recommends integrating human capital strategies with sectoral development planning to reduce regional wage disparities.

By Nur Siti Annazah, Yusuf Faisal Martak, Muhammad Alfi Aulia Ilma, Rezky Aries MunandarJakarta, Indonesia
Urban Studies •

Having More Access Leads to Better Welfare: Study of Access for People with Disabilities (PwD) and Its Spatial Impact

Disability groups are included in vulnerable groups who need special assistance to improve their quality of life. One of the most important things needed for persons with disabilities is the existence and ease of access to various sectors such as health and education. This study aims to see how the influence of the existence of disabilities on welfare and how the existence of access can improve the welfare of persons with disabilities in the region and in the surrounding area. Using the OLS regression model at the household and district/city levels, the result shows that to date people with disabilities are still a negative factor for welfare and the existence of access to health insurance, education and health facilities for disabilities can improve the welfare of their group. Meanwhile, the Spatial Autoregressive Model shows the existence of access to good health and education facilities in an area can improve the welfare of persons with disabilities in the surrounding area that is close to their home area. Whereas, the impact for other areas as a whole only applies to health facilities and access to health insurance.

By Yusuf Faisal Martak and Renny NurhasanaCentral Jakarta, Indonesia
Education Economics•

Rate of Return on Education in Indonesia: The Privilege of A High Economic Group and Urban Areas

This study analyzes the rate of return on education investment for individuals in Indonesia based on residential characteristics (urban/rural) and economic level. Using the Mincer equation, results show that urban areas have a higher average return than rural areas, and the highest economic group (quintile 5) has a return approximately 2 times higher than the lowest group (quintile 1).

By Yusuf Faisal Martak, ChotibCentral Jakarta, Indonesia
Education Economics•

Spatial Disparity of Rate of Return on Education in Indonesia and Local Spillover Impact in Metropolitan Areas

This study measures the rate of return on education investment for each district and city in Indonesia and analyzes its spatial spillover effect on neighboring areas. Using the Mincer model, results show that the rate of return varies widely across regions (1%–11%), with a national average of 5.5%. Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) analysis reveals that an increase in the rate of return on education in one area negatively affects the welfare level of surrounding areas, particularly in metropolitan regions such as Jakarta, Makassar, Banjarmasin, and Medan, due to migration effects.

By Yusuf Faisal Martak, Chotib, Renny NurhasanaCentral Jakarta, Indonesia
Energy & Transportation Policy•

Is cheap fuel policy a (short-term) remedy for costly transportation in rural Indonesia?

This study evaluates the impact of Indonesia's One Price Fuel (BBM Satu Harga) policy on domestic transport costs in rural areas. Using a Difference in Difference (DD) regression model with data from 58 intervened subdistricts (2014–2018), the analysis incorporates control variables, village fixed effects, and propensity score matching. Results show the policy reduced average domestic transport costs by approximately 65%, but only had a significant effect in frontier, outermost, and underdeveloped (3T) villages. The study also finds that improving transportation infrastructure such as asphalt roads and public transport provision are effective alternative policy options.

By M Ichsan, YF Martak, M Ramadhani, CR Septyandrica, P YusgiantoroBandung & Jakarta, Indonesia
Disability & Health Studies•

Double Burden of Persons with Disabilities: Are Those More Likely to Suffer from Chronic Disease?

This study investigates whether persons with disabilities (PwD) in Indonesia face a double burden by being more susceptible to chronic diseases in addition to their existing disabilities. Using quantitative analysis of national survey data, the research examines the relationship between disability status and the likelihood of suffering from chronic diseases, highlighting the compounding health disadvantages faced by PwD. The findings contribute to the sociological and public health discourse on disability, chronic illness, and social inequality in Indonesia.

By Salsabila Kusumawardani, Hardiyani Puspitasari, Muhammad Ciro Danuza, Yusuf Faisal MartakJakarta, Indonesia
Education Policy•

Study on Competency Changes among Prospective Teachers in the Pre-Service Teacher Professional Education Program (PPG Prajabatan)

This final report examines the extent of competency changes among prospective teachers through the Pre-Service Teacher Professional Education Program (PPG Prajabatan). Using a mixed-methods approach (online surveys, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and document reviews) with data collected from 27 Teacher Education Institutions (LPTK) across 12 provinces, the study found significant improvements in participants’ professional, personal, and social competencies, while pedagogical competency tended to remain stable. The study also found no significant competency gaps across regions; however, entrance examination scores had a significant influence on final outcomes. This report provides policy recommendations to strengthen the curriculum, improve collaboration between lecturers and mentor teachers, and enhance the monitoring system of the Pre-Service Teacher Professional Education Program. (Yusuf as a contributor at Article 33 Indonesia, the research institution that conducted this study in partnership with Tanoto Foundation.)

By Alexander Michael Tjahjadi, Salsabila Kusumawardani, Mayla Safuro Lestari Putri, Devy Pratiwi; Yusuf Faisal Martak (Contributor)Jakarta, Indonesia
Education & Child Protection•

Reducing School Bullying through the Stop the School Bullying Platform (SSBF) and Youth Movement

This program report evaluates the Stop the School Bullying Platform (SSBF), an initiative by Article 33 Indonesia with funding from the Canada Fund for Local Initiatives (CFLI), aimed at reducing bullying in schools across Jakarta and Bandung. The program employed workshops, collective action monitoring, school roadshows, and awareness campaigns involving students and teachers. Impact evaluation results show that students' bullying comprehension scores increased from 51 to 60, while teachers' scores improved more significantly from 55 to 72. Bullying experience scores also declined, particularly among junior high school students and female students. The report highlights differences in approach between Jakarta schools (digital and social media campaigns) and Bandung schools (creative activities and direct participation). (Yusuf as a supervisor at Article 33 Indonesia, the research institution that produced this report in partnership with Canada Fund for Local Initiatives/CFLI.)

By Muhammad Ciro Danuza, Chevy Atha; Yusuf Faisal Martak (Supervisor)Jakarta & Bandung, Indonesia
Education Policy•

Indonesia Education Report Card 2025: Achievements and Improvement Agenda (Rapor Pendidikan Indonesia 2025)

This national report presents a comprehensive portrait of Indonesia's education quality in 2022–2024, covering student learning outcomes (literacy, numeracy, character), learning environment climate, teacher quality, and educational infrastructure. Based on official Education Report Card (Rapor Pendidikan) data, the analysis highlights consistent improvements in literacy and numerasi across all school levels, while revealing persistent equity gaps between western and eastern regions, between socioeconomic groups, and between public and private schools. The report provides evidence-based policy recommendations for the central government, regional governments, and schools to accelerate improvements and reduce structural disparities in Indonesia's education system. (Yusuf as a team member at the Center for Education Standards and Policy / Pusat Standar dan Kebijakan Pendidikan (PSKP), Kemendikdasmen — the government institution that produced this report.)

By Indah Pratiwi, Imelda Samosir, Dian Rahayu Ekowati, M. Emir Wicaksono, Bonifatius Galih Krismahardika, Andry Rihardika, Fransisca Nur'aini Krisna; Yusuf Faisal Martak (Contributor)Jakarta, Indonesia
Education Economics•

The Privilege of Attending Early Childhood Education (ECE)

A growing body of evidence has found that Early Childhood Education (ECE) gives longer-term beneficial effects on a student's cognitive ability. Unfortunately, in developing countries, and especially other low-resource environments, too few children have the privilege to attend ECE. Using INOVASI's large-scale longitudinal datasets, this study presents the inequality issue of ECE participation and its effect on students' learning outcomes in Indonesia. The findings suggest that participation rates in ECE are significantly higher in more developed provinces in Indonesia. ECE is mainly dominated by students from higher socio-economic backgrounds, and those with more well-educated and engaged parents. ECE participation rates also have an impact on student learning achievement, with children participating in ECE having substantially better outcomes compared to their counterparts. Furthermore, students who did not enroll in ECE may lose almost two years of learning. The evidence put forth in this paper suggests that the Indonesian government needs to improve access to ECE and its quality particularly for less advantaged children in remote areas.

By Arsendy Senza, George Adam Sukoco Sikatan, Yusuf Faisal MartakJakarta, Indonesia
Education Economics•

The Effect of Lecturer Certification on The Increase of Scientific Publication in Universities in Indonesia

The Indonesian government has implemented a certification policy for lecturers since 2008. The lecturer certification policy aims to improve the performance of lecturers so that the goal of improving the quality of learning in higher education could be achieved. This study aims to analyze the impact of lecturer certification programs on lecturer performance by comparing the performance of lecturers who have certificates with their counterparts. This study uses both quantitative and qualitative methods. The quantitative approach uses Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) and Difference in Difference (DID) models for secondary data analysis and descriptive analysis for online surveys. The qualitative approach uses descriptive thematic analysis for analyzing focus group discussion results. The study found that the provision of lecturer certification and professional allowances were related to improving the performance of lecturer publications, although still not optimal. To increase the impact of lecturer certification, recommendations include strengthening mechanisms for certified lecturers to understand required performance standards, and adding minimum achievement indicators in the Lecturer Performance Report (LKD) covering all aspects of Tri Dharma.

By Fransisca Nur'aini Krisna, Yusuf Faisal Martak, Sri Fajar Martono, Titus Angga Restuaji, Joko PurnamaCentral Jakarta, Indonesia
Health Economics•

Promoting Behavioral Change in Food Consumption through Free Nutritious Meals: An Analysis of Household Food Consumption Patterns in Indonesia

Child health and nutrition issues in Indonesia remain a challenge, particularly related to stunting, malnutrition, and underweight. This study aims to identify household food consumption patterns in Indonesia using Susenas 2023 data and a descriptive analysis approach, in order to provide inputs for the Free Nutritious Meals Program (MBG). The findings show that: (1) food and non-food expenditures are relatively balanced, but less prosperous households tend to allocate a larger share to food; (2) unhealthy food consumption remains below 10% of total food consumption, with no significant differences across economic groups; and (3) households with school-age children show higher unhealthy food consumption patterns across all welfare levels. These findings highlight the relevance of the MBG program in supporting lower-income groups with larger food expenditure shares, promoting healthy food consumption across social groups, and targeting school-age children as a priority group. Policy recommendations include comprehensive healthy eating education and consideration of a phased universal approach in the distribution of MBG benefits.

By Santoso, Yusuf Faisal Martak, Devy Pratiwi, Muhammad Alfi Aulia IlmaSouth Jakarta, Indonesia
Labor Economics•

Shifting Skill Demands and Workforce Competency Development Challenges: An Analysis of Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) Data 2000-2014

Digital transformation and technological advancement have reshaped the labor market, shifting from traditional sectors to services and technology. The Future of Jobs Report 2025 (WEF) highlights growing demand for roles such as AI specialists and big data analysts, while traditional jobs decline. Using IFLS 2000 and 2014 data, this study finds that: the number of unemployed individuals doubled, with nearly 50% of those still employed experiencing sector shifts; workers who changed sectors earned lower wages than those who remained in the same sector; and training can improve skills and wages, including for those who experienced sector transitions. The study concludes that sector shifts occur in the labor force, but the root cause of lower welfare and unemployment is a lack of competencies and required skills. Recommendations include developing a training curriculum roadmap aligned with skill demands, providing incentives for employers to offer training, and optimizing the government's role in providing flexible and affordable training access through vocational schools and higher education.

By Santoso, Yusuf Faisal Martak, Muhammad Alfi Aulia IlmaSouth Jakarta, Indonesia
Disaster Management & Social Resilience•

Public Conversation on the 2026 East Nusa Tenggara Earthquake

An analysis of public conversation following the 2026 East Nusa Tenggara earthquake, drawing on 657 Instagram comments across 119 posts during the first week after the disaster. The study examines discourse frames, comment tone, communicative functions, reader endorsement, and perceptions of different actors. It highlights how citizen solidarity and conditions on the ground shaped the conversation, while criticism and governance-related comments received disproportionately high reader endorsement. The study also identifies implications for social media monitoring and disaster communication, particularly the need to identify requests for help based on content rather than popularity alone. [Research Report - Brief] Publi…

By Impact Cannot Wait Research TeamIndonsia
Artificial Intelligence, Digital Economy & Economic Development•

Artificial Intelligence Preparedness and Global Macroeconomic Conditions: A Cross-Country Analysis of 165 Countries and a Case Study of Indonesia

This research examines the relationship between artificial intelligence (AI) preparedness and global macroeconomic conditions across 165 countries, with a specific focus on Indonesia. Using the IMF's Artificial Intelligence Preparedness Index (AIPI) 2023 and World Bank macroeconomic indicators from 2015 to 2024, the study applies descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, regression models, and spatial analysis to assess patterns in AI readiness and economic performance. The findings reveal strong correlations between AI preparedness, GDP per capita, and internet connectivity, alongside substantial disparities across income groups and geographical regions. However, after accounting for initial income levels and historical economic conditions, AI preparedness shows no statistically significant independent association with key macroeconomic outcomes in 2024. Indonesia performs above the global and regional AIPI medians, although innovation and economic integration remain areas for improvement. The report provides evidence-based insights into AI readiness, economic development, and policy priorities, highlighting the importance of digital infrastructure, human capital, innovation, and governance.

By Impact Cannot Wait (ICW)Global (165 Countries)